All the celebrities, Democratic policy makers, and wealthy supporters of President Obama were out at the White House State Dinner. They all dressed to the nines, except Jennifer Granholm. It was a lavish affair where everyone gawked at Michelle Obama as if she were Jackie Kennedy. A crasher got into the party despite not being on the elite guest list. It was a night for wealthy government-lovers to be around other wealthy government-lovers to be entertained by Jennifer Hudson and dine on an exquisite menu.
The media let the biggest story of the entire scene be just a passing comment, which is how much did this cost? It cost around $500,000 to put this all together. Who paid for this shindig! YOU!
The cost per American to pay for the White House State Dinner: Two tenths of a penny.
The cost per taxpayer to pay for the White House State Dinner: Four cents.
So your Average Joe is paying to keep this guest list fed and entertained? What's with this country?
So the market has no faith in the U.S. Dollar, but yet the market likes the debasing of the currency. Fine, but what about all this talk that we will get out of this horrible recession? What would get us out of the recession? Are happy days ahead?
- With all of this good cheer with the markets, take a look at the unemployment figures below (click to enlarge).
- What about businesses amping up production? That's gotta be it... right!?! Ummm... here's another example that's not the case.
- Okay, what about banks lending more for entrepreneurship or buying homes? Nope.
- Still new businesses must be popping up and existing businesses are still staying alive? It has to be... Don't tell me, NOOOOOOO!
- What about gold prices? The TV told me to sell my gold for cash, just throw it in the bag!
Wrong video...
(Seriously, you should hold onto that gold... notice which shows they air their ads. Maury, Jerry Springer, and any court show imaginable are the most popular programming for advertising this stuff. They are targeting idiots that are willing to give up something of worth for a small chunk of fiat money.)
When gold goes up in value, people are scared not due to inflation... but because they want to own something of real value, not U.S. Government debt. A stock or currency can be worthless, but a non-perishable natural resource like gold, silver, copper or platinum will not.
Worthless stock of choice:
Worthless currency of choice (well sorta, it is wallpaper or fuel for fire now after all):
Alright, so with all of these fundamental signs of FAIL what is there to be so optimistic about with the American economy?
All I have to say is, what recovery? Where are the signs that there is a recovery? It looks like a stock market that is out of touch with economic realities. The stock market is not a good indicator of the economy. Just because it goes up, it doesn't mean that the news is good.
Because when 1 in 4 children are receiving government welfare in the country, you can't lie and say there is a recovery. It's time to point the fingers at Washington D.C. and the media for concocting this nonsensical notion.
This is just like past reports so read those, except this will be a whole lot shorter. Let's compare from July 13, 2009 to November 6, 2009, shall we...
Inverse coincidences (opposite daily gain/loss movements between Dow and Dollar Index):
Count of Inverse Coincidence
Inverse Coincidence
Total
No
35.71%
Yes
64.29%
Grand Total
100.00%
Onto the correlations... (Remember with every picture if you want to enlarge it, just click on it!)
The daily gain/loss correlation:
There is a moderate negative correlation between the daily gains/losses of the U.S. Dollar Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The correlation of gains/losses of the Dow Jones with the U.S. Dollar Index by the minute is -.4349 and the coefficient of determination is .1891. The trend has not been changing much since we last checked.
The daily closing price correlation:
There is a semi-strong negative correlation between the closing prices of the Dow and the U.S. Dollar Index. The correlation is -.6596 and the coefficient of determination is .4351. This indicates the trend has shown some weakening. However, the relationship still exists.
Now some fun and scary charts showcasing correlations put over different time periods and the SMA (Simple Moving Average) activity of the correlations during these time periods. The SMA periods are indicated in the legend on the right hand side. I also included the closing price of the Dow Jones for each corresponding day to show the relationship between the correlations and the closing price of the Dow.
The "rally" just doesn't look sustainable and perhaps the most damning chart is the one on the bottom. Notice that whenever the 20 day correlation reaches its peak and then crosses over the 50 and 100 day correlations, the closing price of the Dow falls around a month later. Note that the bottom chart's figures are not moving averages. Those are real correlations not SMAs.
Is the Dow rally unsustainable? It looks to be pointing that way according to the charts.
I decided that it was almost necessary to come back, I missed blogging and I figured that I can fit it into my schedule. What's the harm in showing the trends no other blog has bothered to touch or has performed a shoddy job in trying to replicate? Back to tracking the U.S. Dollar, Gold, equity markets, and now treasury bills -- OH JOY!. I figure no better time to start than well... during the afternoon.
Oh yeah, if you like what you see do tell your friends/colleagues/significant others/flames/one night stands/favorite stripper/broker/carpenter... you get the idea. Tell people, spread the word! It's sleep time, but I'm back!
Tomorrow, I'll see if I can fill in the last two months of data... oh yeah, didn't I say that the Dow and Euro would reach 1.50 and 10,000 at the same time? I'm too good.
Life has gotten in the way of blogging and right now I have to put this blog on hiatus... to those that read this blog and have come back for more, thank you and to those that showed up once and did not come again... at least you were here. I may revive the blog in the future, who knows, but right now I cannot put the same energy into it and I would be cheating everyone by putting up a weak effort. I may post now and again, but this blog will be put on the shelf for now.
